Fig. 3: A comparison of observed and modeled SST trends in the Niño-3.4 region.

The figure shows the distribution of 60-year trends in the Niño-3.4 region (5°S-5°N and 170°W-120°W) for end dates ranging from 2008–2017 for 88 individual CMIP5 model runs and 40 NCAR LENS runs. The CMIP5 and LENS multimodel means for each 60-year trend are also shown as blue and black diamonds. Also shown are the observational estimates from ECMWF, HadISST, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/NCAR and ERSSTv5 SST analyses. (Adapted from ref. 27).