Fig. 4: Tropical Pacific SST Trends from 1958 to 2018.

Trends in the east-west SST gradient as measured by (a western box (140oE-170oE, 3oS-3oN) minus an eastern box (170oW-90oW, 3oS-3oN); horizontal axis), north-south near-equatorial SST gradient (the average of off-equatorial box (9oS-3oS, 3oN-9oN) minus equatorial box (3oS-3oN) all for longitudes 170oW-120oW; vertical axis), and the pattern correlation between the HadISST and simulated SST in the Pacific Ocean 10°S-10°N domain (color dots). A 511 individual realizations (colored dots) from 45 CMIP6 models, and the multimodel ensemble mean (white star); (B) Six multimodel LENS ensemble means (colored diamonds) and the six-model LENS ensemble mean (white star)2. Also shown in each panel are observation-based estimates from HadISST, COBE, COBE2, ERSSTv5, and ORAs5 (diamonds). Units for SST gradients are oC per 61 years. This plot is adapted from ref. 2 (© American Meteorological Society. Used with permission.) which provides additional information on the data used and the methods.