Fig. 3: Changes in extreme El Niño event occurrences in a warming climate.
From: More frequent central Pacific El Niño and stronger eastern pacific El Niño in a warmer climate
Ratios of moderate, strong, and extreme El Niño events in 30 CMIP6 models based on Niño3 SSTA (a–c) and Niño4 SSTA (d–f). a, d are for the 20th century, b, e 21st century, and c, f their difference, respectively. Each Niño index is normalized by STD of each model in the 20th century. Definitions of moderate, strong, and extreme El Niño events are based on [0.5–1STD], [1–2STD], and [>2STD], respectively. The value in parentheses is the number of events. The error bars indicate the 95% confidence level using the bootstrap method (Methods).
