Fig. 5: PI distribution and poleward migration.

Comparison between current (a) and the 2 future PI scenarios (b, c), based on E-Track-8.5 MME1. The background map in colour is the TC-Season averaged PI map. TC location contour, based on intensification-track points, is overlaid. These points are first interpolated to 2 by 2 grid before contouring, 95% of points are enclosed. a Current: present-day PI map with present-day TC location contour overlaid. b Future TC_Stay: future PI map with present-day TC location contour (in black) overlaid. This contour is the same as in (a), because there is no TC movement involved. c Future TC_Move: future PI map with future TC location contour (in white) overlaid. The contour in (b) is also shown in dashed black, for comparison. d–f PI probability distribution histogram for Current (d), future TC_Stay (e), and future TC_Move (f). Additional discussions see Supplementary Note 2.