Fig. 1: Absolute responses of MJO precipitation and wind amplitude to global warming.

a, b Spatial distribution of the standard deviation of 20–100 days and eastward wavenumber 1–5 filtered precipitation (shaded, units are mm/day) and 850 hPa zonal wind (contour, units are m/s) for a historical simulation (1986–2005) and b difference between SSP370 (2081–2100) and historical simulations. c, d Probability distribution of c MJO precipitation amplitude (units are %/mm/day) and d MJO wind amplitude (units are %/m/s) averaged over the domain of 15°S-Eq., 60°E-180° for the historical (blue) and SSP370 (red) simulations. The light blue and red shadings in c, d represent ±1 standard deviation calculated across the 100 ensemble members relative to the ensemble mean. The small blue dot in a is the sample grid cell (5°S, 110°W) used to estimate time of emergence of MJO changes in Fig. 2.