Fig. 1: Probability density function of daily precipitation over the NEUS in September to November during 1951–2020.

The observation is shown by the black line. SPEAR_LO (100-km resolution), SPEAR_MED (50-km resolution), and SPEAR_HI (25-km resolution) simulations are shown in green dotted, dashed, and solid lines, respectively. CESM-LE (100-km resolution) is shown by the purple dash-dotted line. Only the spread of SPEAR_HI ensemble members is shown. The ensemble spreads for the other models are included in Supplementary Fig. 2. Vertical lines and the numbers shown in the legend indicate the thresholds of 99th percentile daily precipitation in each dataset or model (see “Methods” for the definition).