Table 2 Risk ratio.

From: Rapidly increasing likelihood of exceeding 50 °C in parts of the Mediterranean and the Middle East due to human influence

Location

Risk ratio: T > 45 °C

Risk ratio: T > 50 °C

 

Present day

End of the century

Present day

End of the century

ARE

1

1

4845 (1678–44775)

>104

DZA

2.73 (2.66–2.83)

3.53 (3.44–3.62)

>105 (4644 - inf)

>105

EGY

3.37 (3.23–3.52)

5.19 (5.03–5.36)

976 (196–18373)

>104 (5352 - >105)

ESP

5.54 (4.66–6.87)

22 (19–29)

inf

inf

ISR

10 (8–13)

82 (69–104)

inf

inf

JOR

9 (6–23)

107 (91–283)

inf

inf

LBY

2.72 (2.64–2.82)

3.26 (3.16–3.36)

inf

inf

MAR

3.28 (3.17–3.41)

4.19 (4.02–4.32)

20 (11–36)

469 (316–1498)

QAT

1

1

250 (164–3984)

3231 (2228–52711)

SAU

1

1

31 (27–34)

66 (60–74)

TUN

1.98 (1.93–2.03)

2.38 (2.34–2.42)

8 (6–12)

95 (78–120)

TUR

10 (2–32)

1128 (574–2617)

inf

inf

  1. Estimated change in the probability of exceeding 45 and 50 °C at the reference locations.
  2. Best estimates (50th percentile) of the risk ratio are reported together the 5–95% uncertainty range in parentheses (no range is given when estimated to be near-zero, or all percentiles are of the order of several thousand years).
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