Fig. 4: Relation between NAO’s standard deviation and 95pNoD trend.

Two-dimensional histograms of the NAO’s standard deviation against 95pNoD trend for a the 1970–2014 period, the 2050–2099 period for b SSP1–2.6 and c SSP5–8.5. The colour bar shows the percentage of models within a bin. The linear regression of the NAO’s standard deviation onto the 95pNoD trend is shown for the three subplots, and the slope of the linear regression is provided in every subplot (an asterisk is present when the linear regression is significantly different from zero, p < 0.05). ERA5 data are shown with a green circle in the historical subplot (a).