Table 2 Basin-averaged number of drought months for the Rio Santa and Vilcanota-Urubamba regions for the control period (1980–2018) and mid- (2022–2060) and late- (2062–2100) 21st century, based on values of the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI).

From: A future of extreme precipitation and droughts in the Peruvian Andes

 

Drought characteristics

Rio Santa

Vilcanota-Urubamba

  

1980–2018

2022–2060

2062–2100

1980–2018

2022–2060

2062–2100

SPI RCP4.5

Total number of drought months

86.4

67.2

63.8

114.9

88.2

78.3

Number of CMIP5 models with drought months > control period

N/A

9

11

N/A

10

6

SPEI RCP4.5

Total number of drought months

96.1

110.8

134.6

110.2

145.8

172.3

Number of CMIP5 models with drought months > control period

N/A

16

20

N/A

21

24

SPI RCP8.5

Total number of drought months

86.4

70.3

46.6

114.9

84.7

56.1

Number of CMIP5 models with drought months > control period

N/A

9

5

N/A

8

4

SPEI RCP8.5

Total number of drought months

96.1

129.8

174.0

110.2

157.9

211.3

Number of CMIP5 models with drought months > control period

N/A

19

23

N/A

21

24

  1. The SPI and SPEI indices are calculated for the previous 12 months (SPI/SPEI-12), and therefore the first month in the first year of each period is December. As such, all drought months are out of a total possible 457 months (from 1980–2018, 2022–2060 or 2062–2100). Results for the control period (future) are based on the bias-corrected WRF hindcast (mean of the downscaled ensemble of CMIP5 models). Also shown are the number of statistically downscaled CMIP5 models (out of 30) with more drought months for the future periods than the control period.
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