Fig. 4: Probability distributions of upper-level aviation turbulence (CAT, MWT, and NCT) diagnostics under the specified climate change scenario.
From: Global response of upper-level aviation turbulence from various sources to climate change
The probabilities for the 46 turbulence diagnostics used are computed from 45 years of daily-mean data from January to December between 200 and 250 hPa and within extratropics (25°N-65°N and 25°S-65°S). The probabilities of NCT diagnostics are also computed over the tropics (between 25°N and 25°S) and are shown in the bottom-right corner. The blue bar indicates the historical simulation distribution and the red bar indicates the climate change simulation distribution with the specified high-emissions scenario. The overlapped areas are indicated in violet. The plus sign is included when the 98th percentile of the turbulence diagnostic in the future period is greater than that in the historical period. The color of the plus sign indicates the vertical level of data used (red plus: 200–250 hPa, blue plus: 250 hPa, green plus: 225 hPa, and black plus: 200 hPa). The order of turbulence diagnostics used is the same in Table 1.
