Fig. 5: Probability density functions of East Asian MAM SAT during different phases of TSA–SST.

Probability density function was estimated from 100,000 bootstrap samples of East Asian MAM SAT in terms of the climatic mean (black curve), a the positive TSA–SST phase, and b the negative TSA–SST phase. The gray dashed line indicates the mean value. Black solid lines in a and b indicate the extreme cold and hot thresholds, respectively. T2M indicates the 2-m air temperature. Unit of the horizontal axis: °C.