Fig. 1: The decadal change of averaged surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies in Northeast Asia (NEASAT) between the interval 1997–2014 (P2) and 1980–1996 (P1) in boreal summer.

a Time series of observed original (blue) and 9-year low-pass filtered (red) NEASAT anomalies (relative to the period 1961–1990) from 1901 to 2022 using BEST dataset. The blue horizontal lines in Fig. 1a represent the NEASAT averages for the interval 1980–1996 and 1997–2014, respectively. Units: K. b The composite difference of observed SAT averages between 1997–2014 and 1980–1996 using BEST dataset. Units: K. c The composite difference of observed SAT averages between 1997–2014 and 1980–1996 using multi-model ensemble mean (MMEM) of single model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs). Units: K. d The MMEM of the standard deviation (STD) of SAT change between P2 and P1 among members in a SMILE. e The NEASAT change between P2 and P1 using SMILEs, ordered by increasing Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS). Units: K. The black stippling in Fig. 1b, c denotes regional signals significant at the 95% confidence level. The gray box in Fig.1(b-d) represents Northeast Asia (NEA, 35°−52.5°N, 90°E−120°E) studied in this paper.