Fig. 1: El Niño forecasts.
From: Seasonal forecasts of the world’s coastal waterline: what to expect from the coming El Niño?
North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) average forecasts of monthly interannual sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (in °C), initialized on October 1st, for the month of October (a), November (b), December (c) 2023, January (d), February (e), March (f), April (g) and May (h) 2024 (contours are every 0.5 °C). Predicted temporal evolution of Niño4 (i) and Niño3 (j) (SST anomalies averaged over the region [5°N-5°S, 150°W-160°E-150°W] delineated in red in (g) and [5°N-5°S, 150°W-90°W] delineated in blue in (h), respectively) for the individual NMME model’s ensemble average forecast (colored lines), the multi-model ensemble average forecast (thick black lines) and the observed indices for the 1997–98 and 2015–16 events (dashed black lines).
