Fig. 3: Role of ENSO.
From: Quantifying sources of subseasonal prediction skill in CESM2
Difference of 2mT ACC for Active and Neutral ENSO states for the standard CESM2 reforecast set for (a) Weeks 1-2, (b) weeks 3-4, (c) weeks 5-6. Active ENSO states are defined as those forecasts that are initialized when the absolute value of SST anomalies averaged over the Nino 3.4 region are greater than 1 oC and neutral ENSO refers to absolute SST anomalies less than 0.5 oC at any time of the year. Findings are very similar for other reforecast sets with realistic ocean initialization (not shown). The white shading indicates regions not significantly different from zero according to a t-test at the 95% confidence level.
