Fig. 1: Schematic of the bootstrapping approach.
From: Convection-permitting climate models offer more certain extreme rainfall projections
The nine model simulations are shown in the centre as cuboids with the three dimensions representing longitude, latitude and time, while each vivid colour characterises a different model. The strategy is represented for the model uncertainty on the left, while on the right for the single-model natural variability and the total uncertainty. The squares represent the results of the statistic, e.g. heavy precipitation (p99), calculated over the time thus reducing the cuboid (bootstrap surrogate) to two dimensions, i.e. longitude and latitude. The spread, calculated as the interval between the 2.5th and 97.5th quantiles of the surrogates, is the measure of each uncertainty.
