Fig. 7: Maps of heavy precipitation model uncertainty and its contribution to total uncertainty.
From: Convection-permitting climate models offer more certain extreme rainfall projections
For heavy precipitation (p99) maps of: on panel a and b, percentage differences in model uncertainty between CPM and RCM bootstrapped ensemble, calculated as (CPM spread -RCM spread)/RCM spread*100; on panel c and d, the percentage differences in model contribution to total uncertainty between CPM and RCM bootstrapped ensemble. Negative (positive) values represent a decrease (increase) in model uncertainty and contribution to total uncertainty in CPMs compared to RCMs in the past (panel a, c) and future (panel b, d). In text for each plot the mean value over the grid points (black dots) with a significant future precipitation change at the 95th level.
