Fig. 2: Near-surface wind and MSLP structure on landfall and track of Storm Ciarán.

a, b Maps of 10-m wind speed (shading) and MSLP (contours) at a 00 UTC and b 06 UTC 2 November 2023 from the IFS analysis. Synoptic wind observations above 20 m s–1 are shown as coloured dots. c Six-hourly track points from the IFS analysis (blacks squares joined by lines) and the IFS HRES forecasts and AI models (coloured symbols as in Fig. 3a, b) from 06 UTC 31 October to 06 UTC 06 UTC 2nd November 2023 (left to right) together with partial MSLP (grey contours in hPa) and 250-hPa wind speed (colour-filled contours) from the IFS analysis at 06 UTC on 31 October, 1 November and 2 November (left to right). The locations of the jet maxima at the longitude points of the MSLP minima at each time are indicated by the cyan squares connected by lines.