Fig. 3: Relationship between North Atlantic SST and European climate.

Regressed JJA observed patterns of surface temperature (a), precipitation (b), total soil moisture within the top 1 m (c), GPP (d), geopotential height at 300 hPa (e, GPH300, with a contour interval of 10 m/K, negative values shown with dashed lines), cloud cover (e, shading) and geopotential height at 850 hPa (f, GPH850, with a contour interval of 2 m/K, negative values shown with dashed lines) and wind (f, vectors) onto North Atlantic SST averaged over 50°W-20°W, 40°N-60°N). The analysis uses data from 2003-2021 and all data are detrended. g–l Difference in the composite of 2 m temperature (g), precipitation (h), total soil moisture within the top 1 m (i), GPP (j), GPH300 (k, with a contour interval of 10 m, negative value shown with dashed lines) and cloud cover (k, shading), GPH850 (l, with a contour interval of 2 m, negative value shown with dashed lines), and wind (l, vectors) between NASST-1°C and NASST + 1 °C model experiments. Twenty ensemble mean data for each experiment are used. Dotted areas represent a 95% significant level. Hatched areas denote a 95% significant level for GPH300 and GPH850.