Fig. 5: Drivers of SST variability changes.
From: Drivers of future extratropical sea surface temperature variability changes in the North Pacific
a The total SST variance change as in Fig. 1c. b, c The SST variance associated with ENSO-only and noise-only forcing, respectively, for 1960–2000. d–f The SST variance changes associated with the change in ocean memory, the ENSO teleconnection, and stochastic noise. The gray contours represent the same changes as in Fig. 2j–l: the change of the ocean memory \({\tilde{\lambda }}^{-1}\), ENSO teleconnection \(\tilde{\beta }\sigma\)(Niño3.4), and the noise variance σ(ξ), respectively. The zero contour line is thicker, with contour intervals of 0.67 months, 0.04 K/month, and 0.02 K/month, respectively. g The total SST variance change computed by summing d–f. h The contribution of the change of each driver to the SST variance change. Hue indicates the relative contribution of each driver and brightness corresponds to the magnitude of the total SST variance change (see Supplementary Fig. 8). Locations where the SST data does not meet the criterion described in Section “Applicability of the Linear Stochastic-Deterministic Model” are shown as white hatched areas. Stippling indicates where the changes are not significant at the 5% level.
