Fig. 2: Maximum temperature anomaly distribution and return periods in the Western Mediterranean: Insights from reconstructions, observations, and future scenarios.
From: Recent heatwaves as a prelude to climate extremes in the western Mediterranean region
a Comparative Climate Anomaly Analysis: Probability density functions illustrating Western Mediterranean climate anomalies, as inferred from tree-ring reconstructions, observational records (Berkeley Earth), and the average projections across three future climate scenarios for 1951–2005. Additionally, anomaly distributions against varying emission pathways are shown, showcasing the potential divergence in climate trajectories contingent on current policy decisions. Dashed lines represent the distributions’ means, while solid circles highlight the occurrence of warm extremes, identified at the 95th percentile. Note that while the E-OBS dataset records a 2022 temperature anomaly of 3.9 °C, we have chosen to use the most conservative estimate in our analysis. b As in (a) but for CMIP6. c Frequency Projections for the 2022 and 2023 Extreme Warm Anomalies: This panel quantifies the recurrence interval (in years) of the exceptional warmth observed in 2022 (red vertical line) and 2023 (black vertical line), comparing estimates from a historical reconstruction, present-day observations, and projections within future climate scenarios. d as in (c) but for CMIP6.
