Fig. 4: Metrics comparison across 30 heavy precipitation events.
From: Hybrid physics-AI outperforms numerical weather prediction for extreme precipitation nowcasting
Comparison of precipitation forecast accuracy between NowcastNet, HRRR, Persistence, and Advection against MRMS QPE (at 3 km spatial resolution) for 30 heavy precipitation events across the geography of interest. Metrics include Critical Success Index (CSI), Probability of Detection (POD), False Alarm Ratio (FAR), and Fractions Skill Score (FSS); all at thresholds (t) of t > 0.1 mm/h, t > 16 mm/h and t > 32 mm/h for different lead times (T + 1 h, T + 2 h, and T + 3 h). Upward arrow indicates higher score is better and downward arrow indicates lower score is better.
