Fig. 8: A summary of the physical processes connecting the present-day rainfall in the tropical Pacific and the projected East China summer precipitation (ECSP) changes.
From: Improve the projection of East China summer precipitation with emergent constraints
Solid boxes denote processes in the historical period and dashed boxes for future projection. Red: processes that are stronger (+) in observation than historical simulation in multi-model ensemble mean (MME) or enhanced (+) in future changes than the original projection in MME. Blue: opposite to the red. Percentages on the top are reduced variances after constrained by observational rainfall for the two leading inter-model empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes (EOF1 and EOF2) of the projected ECSP changes. The constrained results for the first mode favor a reduced ECSP increase, and for the second mode favor a reduced (enhanced) precipitation increase in south (north) East China, represented by a negative value of the first principal component (PC1) and a positive value of the second principal component (PC2).
