Fig. 3: Estimated aerosol causal effects in models and observations.
From: Decreasing aerosols increase the European summer diurnal temperature range
In a aerosol effects on DTR (1940-2014 for CMIP6 models in blue and purple; 1940-2020 for E-OBS and MAC; solid lines) are compared to observed (dotted orange line) DTR anomalies relative to 1940-2020. Total causal effects of aerosols on \({{\rm{T}}}_{\max }\) and \({{\rm{T}}}_{\min }\), which are used to estimate aerosol effects on the DTR, are shown in b and c, respectively. In d the estimated surface contribution to ERFSW, referred to as ERFS,SW, is compared between observations (black) and two CMIP6 models (purple and green). ERF estimates are obtained by multiplying the difference in AOD between 1850 and 2014 in models/[2005-2015] in observations with the total causal effect (TCE; in e) of aerosols on SW. For comparison, global annual aerosol ERF16 (orange bar), multimodel mean European aerosol ERFSW28 (orange triangle) and aerosol ERFSW for CanESM5 and HadGEM3-GC31-LL19 (orange crosses) are plotted in d.
