Fig. 10: Warm pool edge precipitation response.
From: Understanding spring forecast El Niño false alarms in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble
a Regression of precipitation on Niño4 temperature anomalies for CMAP/ERSST. Box shows the warm pool edge region (150E-180, 5S-5N). b Correlation for 15-day segments of precipitation anomalies with initial Niño4 temperature anomalies. The black line is the correlation between ERA5 and CMAP. c Root-mean square error of precipitation correlation from models with observed temperature and precipitation lag correlation and confident forecast rate. d Root-mean square error of precipitation correlation from models with observed temperature and precipitation lag correlation and false alarm fraction.
