Fig. 8: Anomaly correlation (AC) skill of the weighted model-analog hindcasts. | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

Fig. 8: Anomaly correlation (AC) skill of the weighted model-analog hindcasts.

From: Identifying source of predictability for vapor pressure deficit variability in the southwestern United States

Fig. 8

A AC skill of the VPD anomalies in the southwest US generated by the SPEAR seasonal forecast system (cyan), and weighted model-analog (red). For comparison, the equally weighted model-analog skill is shown in purple (same as in Fig. 4A), and VPD-only model-analog skill is in light blue (same as in Fig. 3C). The cyan shading denotes 5-95% confidence interval of SPEAR seasonal forecast system. B AC skill for area-averaged VPD in the southwest US as a function of initialization month (vertical axis) and forecast lead times up to 12 months (horizontal axis). The forecast skill here is generated using weighted model-analog experiment. Hatching indicates the AC skill is not significant at 95% confidence level. C Fractional weights showing the relative contribution arising from each predictor in forecasting the area-averaged VPD variability in the southwest US (the detailed description can be found in the text).

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