Fig. 4: ENSO teleconnection and ENSO-related precipitation anomalies stratified by clustered groups.

Ensemble average of 200 hPa geopotential height anomalies (Z200, units m) regressed against the normalized Niño 3.4 precipitation index for a ensemble mean of good models (GOOD) and b ensemble mean of bad models (BAD). c, d as in a, b, but for the regression of precipitation anomalies (units 10−5 kg/m2s). The black box in a indicates the NAE domain (20°N–80°N, 60°W–0°) used to compute the pattern correlation for the Taylor diagrams in Fig. 3. The light-gray stippling indicates the grid points in which the average is significant at the 95% level of confidence with respect to a one-sample t-test. The units of regression are specified per standard deviations.