Fig. 3: A predictable dynamical signal which is spuriously weak.
From: Predictable atmospheric circulation driver of Eurasian winter temperatures
a, b zonal and meridional 250 hPa wind differences (as in Fig. 2e and f) but now for the ensemble mean of all model members and plotted with half of the colour bar range, to highlight the similar spatial pattern but weak amplitude of the forced circulation signal. correlation skill at gridpoints of the model ensemble mean predicting the observed ERA5 interannual variability in zonal (c) and meridional winds (d). e, f the corresponding skill of the model predicting itself (see Methods). g, h the ratio of predictable components (RPC, see Methods) where values RPC > 1 suggest the presence of spuriously weak models circulation signals. i standardised timeseries of the observed and predicted European zonal jet dipole (EZJD) index. j absolute EZJD values (m/s) are plotted for the ensemble mean (red), ERA5 reanalysis (black) along with individual ensemble members (pink circles) and the adjusted ensemble using the matching method (see text and Methods) is shown in green.
