Abstract
The Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) acts as Earth’s largest tropical heat reservoir; however, the mechanisms that drive orbital-scale sea surface salinity (SSS) variability remain unresolved, as traditional δ¹⁸O-based proxies conflate regional salinity with global ice-volume effects. Here, we present a 450 kyr SSS record from the WPWP using hydrogen isotope composition of alkenones (δDAlk)—a proxy isolating evaporation-precipitation balance—paired with isotope-enabled climate modeling. Our results reveal dominant precessional SSS variability, with maxima during boreal precession minima (Pmin) when intensified meridional insolation gradients strengthen Walker Circulation, enhance evaporation, and sustain La Niña-like conditions. The δDAlk record demonstrates that precession-driven ocean-atmosphere feedbacks govern 78% of SSS variability, and reconcile discrepancies in previous δ¹⁸O-based studies showing the significant influence of obliquity. Integration with climate simulations shows that precession-induced trade winds amplify saline water advection and evaporation, establishing a “salinification triad” that dominates WPWP hydroclimate. These findings redefine the WPWP as a precession-paced engine of tropical hydrology, suggesting that the low-latitude tropical hydrology is highly sensitive to insolation intensity and then regulates ENSO-monsoon interactions. By isolating orbital controls on salinity extremes, this work advances frameworks for projecting hydrological responses to anthropogenic warming, critical for regions reliant on monsoon rainfall, emphasizing the vulnerability of tropical hydrological extremes to orbital forcing.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
All data needed to evaluate the conclusions in the paper are present in the paper and/or the Supplementary Information.
References
Windler, G., Tierney, J. E., DiNezio, P. N., Gibson, K. & Thunell, R. Shelf exposure influence on Indo-Pacific Warm Pool climate for the last 450,000 years. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 516, 66–76 (2019).
Windler, G., Tierney, J. E., Zhu, J. & Poulsen, C. J. Unraveling glacial hydroclimate in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool: perspectives from water isotopes. Paleoceanogr. Paleoclimatol. 35, e2020PA003985 (2020).
Jian, Z. et al. Warm pool ocean heat content regulates ocean–continent moisture transport. Nature 612, 92–99 (2022).
Zhang, S. et al. Precession cycles of the El Niño/Southern oscillation-like system controlled by Pacific upper-ocean stratification. Commun. Earth Environ. 2, 239 (2021).
Zhang, S. et al. Thermal coupling of the Indo-Pacific warm pool and Southern Ocean over the past 30,000 years. Nat. Commun. 13, 5457 (2022).
Dang, H. et al. Pacific warm pool subsurface heat sequestration modulated Walker circulation and ENSO activity during the Holocene. Sci. Adv. 6, eabc0402 (2020).
Huang, E. et al. Dole effect as a measurement of the low-latitude hydrological cycle over the past 800 ka. Sci. Adv. 6, eaba4823 (2020).
Geng, X., Kug, J.-S., Shin, N.-Y., Zhang, W. & Chen, H.-C. On the spatial double peak of the 2023–2024 El Niño event. Commun. Earth Environ. 5, 691 (2024).
Chen, Z. et al. Global land monsoon precipitation changes in CMIP6 projections. Geophys. Res. Lett. 47, e2019GL086902 (2020).
Clemens, S. C. et al. Remote and local drivers of Pleistocene South Asian summer monsoon precipitation: A test for future predictions. Sci. Adv. 7, eabg3848 (2021).
Ha, K. J., Moon, S., Timmermann, A. & Kim, D. Future changes of summer monsoon characteristics and evaporative demand over Asia in CMIP6 simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett. 47, e2020GL087492 (2020).
McGrath, S. M., Clemens, S. C. & Huang, Y. Pleistocene Sunda Shelf submersion-exposure cycles initiate vegetation Walker Circulation feedback. Geology 51, 1053–1056 (2023).
Hollstein, M. et al. Variations in Western Pacific Warm Pool surface and thermocline conditions over the past 110,000 years: Forcing mechanisms and implications for the glacial Walker circulation. Quat. Sci. Rev. 201, 429–445 (2018).
Lo, L. et al. Orbital control on the thermocline structure during the past 568 kyr in the Solomon Sea, southwest equatorial Pacific. Quat. Sci. Rev. 295, 107756 (2022).
Tachikawa, K. et al. The precession phase of hydrological variability in the Western Pacific Warm Pool during the past 400 ka. Quat. Sci. Rev. 30, 3716–3727 (2011).
Jian, Z. et al. Half-precessional cycle of thermocline temperature in the western equatorial Pacific and its bihemispheric dynamics. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 117, 7044–7051 (2020).
Koutavas, A., & Joanides S. El Niño–Southern oscillation extrema in the Holocene and last glacial maximum. Paleoceanography 27, (2012).
Liu, Y. et al. Obliquity pacing of the western Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone over the past 282,000 years. Nat. Commun. 6, 10018 (2015).
Jia, Q. et al. Hydrological variability in the western tropical Pacific over the past 700 kyr and its linkage to Northern Hemisphere climatic change. Palaeogeogr., Palaeoclimatol., Palaeoecol. 493, 44–54 (2018).
Lambert, J. E. et al. Obliquity-driven subtropical forcing of the thermocline after 240 ka in the southern sector of the Western Pacific Warm Pool. Palaeogeogr. Palaeoclimatol., Palaeoecol. 621, 111578 (2023).
Delcroix, T., Henin, C., Porte, V. & Arkin, P. Precipitation and sea-surface salinity in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Deep-Sea Res. Part I Oceanogr. Res. Pap. 43, 1123–1141 (1996).
Schouten, S. et al. The effect of temperature, salinity and growth rate on the stable hydrogen isotopic composition of long chain alkenones produced by Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica. Biogeosciences 3, 113–119 (2006).
Sachs, J. P., Maloney, A. E., Gregersen, J. & Paschall, C. Effect of salinity on 2H/1H fractionation in lipids from continuous cultures of the coccolithophorid Emiliania huxleyi. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 189, 96–109 (2016).
Schwab, V. F. & Sachs, J. P. The measurement of D/H ratio in alkenones and their isotopic heterogeneity. Org. Geochem. 40, 111–118 (2009).
Sachse, D. et al. Molecular paleohydrology: interpreting the hydrogen-isotopic composition of lipid biomarkers from photosynthesizing organisms. Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 40, 221–249 (2012).
M’boule, D. et al. Salinity dependent hydrogen isotope fractionation in alkenones produced by coastal and open ocean haptophyte algae. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 130, 126–135 (2014).
Gould, J., Kienast, M., Dowd, M. & Schefuß, E. An open-ocean assessment of alkenone δD as a paleo-salinity proxy. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 246, 478–497 (2019).
Wolfshorndl, M., Danford, R. & Sachs, J. P. 2H/1H fractionation in microalgal lipids from the North Pacific Ocean: Growth rate and irradiance effects. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 246, 317–338 (2019).
Mitsunaga, B. A. et al. Alkenone δ2H values–a viable seawater isotope proxy? New core-top δ2HC37: 3 and δ2HC37: 2 data suggest inter-alkenone and alkenone-water hydrogen isotope fractionation are independent of temperature and salinity. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 339, 139–156 (2022).
van der Meer, M. T. et al. Large effect of irradiance on hydrogen isotope fractionation of alkenones in Emiliania huxleyi. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 160, 16–24 (2015).
Weiss, G. M., Schouten, S., Damsté, J. S. S. & van der Meer, M. T. Constraining the application of hydrogen isotopic composition of alkenones as a salinity proxy using marine surface sediments. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 250, 34–48 (2019).
Torres-Romero, I. et al. Hydrogen isotope fractionation is controlled by CO2 in coccolithophore lipids. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 121, e2318570121 (2024).
Petrick, B. F., McClymont, E. L., Marret, F. & Van Der Meer, M. T. Changing surface water conditions for the last 500 ka in the Southeast Atlantic: Implications for variable influences of Agulhas leakage and Benguela upwelling. Paleoceanography 30, 1153–1167 (2015).
Simon, M. H. et al. Salt exchange in the Indian-Atlantic Ocean Gateway since the Last Glacial Maximum: A compensating effect between Agulhas Current changes and salinity variations?. Paleoceanography 30, 1318–1327 (2015).
Quirós-Collazos, L. et al. Controls on primary productivity in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific, east of the Galapagos Islands, during the penultimate deglaciation. Paleoceanogr. Paleoclimatol. 35, e2019PA003777 (2020).
Zhang, R. et al. High-resolution records of sea surface temperature and salinity in the East China Sea over the past 14.2 kyr: Implication from alkenone and its hydrogen isotopes. Glob. Planet. Change 224, 104099 (2023).
Brassell, S., Eglinton, G., Marlowe, I., Pflaumann, U. & Sarnthein, M. Molecular stratigraphy: a new tool for climatic assessment. Nature 320, 129–133 (1986).
Tierney, J. E. & Tingley, M. P. BAYSPLINE: A new calibration for the alkenone paleothermometer. Paleoceanogr. Paleoclimatol. 33, 281–301 (2018).
Mohtadi, M. et al. North Atlantic forcing of tropical Indian Ocean climate. Nature 509, 76–80 (2014).
Cheng, H. et al. The Asian monsoon over the past 640,000 years and ice age terminations. nature 534, 640–646 (2016).
Wang, P. X. et al. The global monsoon across time scales: Mechanisms and outstanding issues. Earth-Sci. Rev. 174, 84–121 (2017).
Liu, T. et al. ENSO-like state in the tropical Pacific Ocean during the cold and warm periods of the galcial cycle since 450 ka. Quat. Sci. 40, 646–657 (2020).
Cheng, H. et al. Milankovitch theory and monsoon. Innovation 3, (2022).
Sha, L. et al. Triple oxygen isotope reveals insolation-forced tropical moisture cycles. Sci. Adv. 10, eadp7855 (2024).
Laskar, J. et al. A long-term numerical solution for the insolation quantities of the Earth. Astron. Astrophys. 428, 261–285 (2004).
Beck, J. W. et al. A 550,000-year record of East Asian monsoon rainfall from 10Be in loess. Science 360, 877–881 (2018).
Guan, C. et al. Dipole structure of mixed layer salinity in response to El Niño-La Niña asymmetry in the tropical Pacific. Geophys. Res. Lett. 46, 12165–12172 (2019).
Zhou, X., Jin, X., Shi, X. & Liu, C. The change in convection over the Indo-Pacific warm pool in the mid-Holocene and its influence on South Asian precipitation. Quat. Sci. Rev. 322, 108399 (2023).
Rustic, G. T., Polissar, P. J., Ravelo, A. C. & White, S. M. Modulation of late Pleistocene ENSO strength by the tropical Pacific thermocline. Nat. Commun. 11, 5377 (2020).
Shi, Z., Cai, Y., Liu, X. & Sha, Y. Distinct responses of East Asian and Indian summer monsoons to astronomical insolation during Marine Isotope Stages 5c and 5e. Palaeogeogr. Palaeoclimatol. Palaeoecol. 510, 40–48 (2018).
Kuechler, R. R., Dupont, L. M. & Schefuß, E. Hybrid insolation forcing of Pliocene monsoon dynamics in West Africa. Clim. Past 14, 73–84 (2018).
Yu, L. Connecting subtropical salinity maxima to tropical salinity minima: Synchronization between ocean dynamics and the water cycle. Prog. Oceanogr. 219, 103172 (2023).
Huybers, P. Combined obliquity and precession pacing of late Pleistocene deglaciations. Nature 480, 229–232 (2011).
Lu, Z., Liu, Z., Chen, G. & Guan, J. Prominent precession band variance in ENSO intensity over the last 300,000 years. Geophys. Res. Lett. 46, 9786–9795 (2019).
Yu, Z. et al. Late Pleistocene island weathering and precipitation in the Western Pacific Warm Pool. NPJ Clim. Atmos. Sci. 7, 91 (2024).
Wei, H. H. & Bordoni, S. Energetic constraints on the ITCZ position in idealized simulations with a seasonal cycle. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst. 10, 1708–1725 (2018).
Qu, T. & Gao, S. Resurfacing of South Pacific tropical water in the Equatorial Pacific and its variability associated with ENSO. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 47, 1095–1106 (2017).
Zhang, P., Wang, B., Wu, Z., Jin, R. & Cao, C. Intensified gradient La Niña and extra-tropical thermal patterns drive the 2022 East and South Asian “Seesaw” extremes. NPJ Clim. Atmos. Sci. 7, 47 (2024).
Rosenthal, Y., Holbourn, A. E. & Kulhanek, D. K. Expedition 363 preliminary report: Western Pacific warm pool. Int. Ocean Discov. Program. 363, 51–52 (2017).
Lisiecki, L. E. & Raymo, M. E. A Pliocene-Pleistocene stack of 57 globally distributed benthic δ18O records. Paleoceanography 20, 1–6 (2005).
Chivall, D. et al. The effects of growth phase and salinity on the hydrogen isotopic composition of alkenones produced by coastal haptophyte algae. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 140, 381–390 (2014).
Bintanja, R., Van De Wal, R. S. & Oerlemans, J. Modelled atmospheric temperatures and global sea levels over the past million years. Nature 437, 125–128 (2005).
Thirumalai, K., Quinn, T. M. & Marino, G. Constraining past seawater δ18O and temperature records developed from foraminiferal geochemistry. Paleoceanography 31, 1409–1422 (2016).
Bemis, B. E., Spero, H. J., Bijma, J. & Lea, D. W. Reevaluation of the oxygen isotopic composition of planktonic foraminifera: Experimental results and revised paleotemperature equations. Paleoceanography 13, 150–160 (1998).
Paillard, D., Labeyrie, L. & Yiou, P. Macintosh program performs time-series analysis. Eos. Trans. Agu. 77, 379 (1996).
Li, M., Hinnov, L. & Kump, L. Acycle: Time-series analysis software for paleoclimate research and education. Comput. Geosci. 127, 12–22 (2019).
Nusbaumer, J., Wong, T. E., Bardeen, C. & Noone, D. Evaluating hydrological processes in the C ommunity A tmosphere M odel V ersion 5 (CAM5) using stable isotope ratios of water. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst. 9, 949–977 (2017).
He, C. et al. Hydroclimate footprint of pan-Asian monsoon water isotope during the last deglaciation. Sci. Adv. 7, eabe2611 (2021).
Du, X. et al. North Atlantic cooling triggered a zonal mode over the Indian Ocean during Heinrich Stadial 1. Sci. Adv. 9, eadd4909 (2023).
Macarewich, S. I., Poulsen, C. J. & Montañez, I. P. Simulation of oxygen isotopes and circulation in a late Carboniferous epicontinental sea with implications for proxy records. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 559, 116770 (2021).
Hurrell, J. W. et al. The community earth system model: a framework for collaborative research. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 94, 1339–1360 (2013).
Tabor, C. R. et al. Interpreting precession-driven δ18O variability in the South Asian monsoon region. J. Geophys. Res.: Atmos. 123, 5927–5946 (2018).
Acknowledgements
We appreciate Professor Lei Zhou, Professor Hongrui Zhang, and other anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments and suggestions, and also acknowledge Professor Steven C. Clemens for constructive comments on the manuscript. This work was financed by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42176059, U1906211, 91958108, 41830539), International Postdoctoral Exchange Fellowship Program (20160073), Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province (BK20170451, BE2016701), “521” talent peaks project in Lianyungang City (LYG06521202316), Project of Innovation for Undergraduate in Jiangsu Province (SD201911641107001, SZ201911641107002). We are also grateful to the “Qing Lan Project” of the Jiangsu Provincial Department of Education.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
R.Y., R.Z., and T.L. conceived and designed the study. R.Y., L.J., R.Z., J.R., F.Z., M.G., X.Y., Y.W., Z.L., and S.X. performed the investigation and data analysis. R.Y., L.J., R.Z., T.L., and J.R. contributed to the interpretation of the data. R.Y., L.J., and R.Z. performed the modelling simulation. R.Y., L.J., R.Z., and T.L. wrote and revised the manuscript.
Corresponding authors
Ethics declarations
Competing interests
The authors declare no competing interests.
Additional information
Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Supplementary information
Rights and permissions
Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
About this article
Cite this article
Yuan, R., Zhang, R., Jiang, L. et al. Precession-driven salinity feedback in the western Pacific warm pool: insights from alkenone hydrogen isotopes over the past 450 kyr. npj Clim Atmos Sci (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01335-6
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01335-6


