Abstract
Most tropical cyclones (TCs) originate from tropical disturbances over the western North Pacific (WNP). This study examines the tropical disturbances that developed into TCs and their relationship with maximum attained intensity. Using data from 1981 to 2020, we reveal that 29.1% of developing disturbances originated from Mixed Rossby–Gravity (MRG) waves. Compared with other origins, MRG-originated TCs intensify faster, produce more super typhoons, and reach higher lifetime maximum intensity (LMI). These developing systems typically form farther southeast and follow prolonged northwestward tracks, benefiting from a longer pre-LMI oceanic trajectory and greater exposure to favorable large-scale conditions, including warmer sea surface temperature, greater mid-level moisture, stronger convection and weaker vertical wind shear. Following their formation, the disturbances co-propagate westward with the MRG wave packet, which itself does not dissipate. 81.8% of these disturbances remain within the MRG wave packet until reaching their LMI, for an average duration of 3.7 days. The MRG wave packet provides favorable conditions for disturbance development, including warmer sea surface temperatures, enhanced moisture supply, reduced vertical wind shear, and stronger upper-level divergence—features that collectively promote intensification. Furthermore, the proportion of TCs statistically associated with MRG-related disturbances shows a significant increasing trend, underscoring an increasingly important role of MRG wave environments in modulating TC intensity.
Data availability
The data supporting the findings of the present study are openly available. The IBTrACS data can be accessed at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/international-best-track-archive-for-climate-stewardship-ibtracs/v04r00/access/netcdf/. The ERA5 data set was acquired via https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.6860a573. The NOAA OI SST V2 High Resolution Dataset was acquired via https://www.psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.noaa.oisst.v2.highres.html. The GridSatB1 data were obtained from the following website: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/gridded-geostationary-brightness-temperature.
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Acknowledgements
This work is jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant 42430611, 42175050, 42275050, 42575186, and 42530605), the Key Laboratory of Polar Atmosphere-ocean-ice System for Weather and Climate, Ministry of Education (FDAOS-OP202313), and the Youth Innovation Promotion Association (CAS Y2021030).
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L.W. conceived the study and interpreted the results. R.T.X. processed the data and wrote the computer code and the initial draft of the paper. Z.Q.G. and Z.P.W. assisted in interpreting results and improving the paper. T.F., X.C., and S.F.C. helped improve the paper. All authors participated in the discussion of results, contributed to manuscript revision, and read and approved the submitted version.
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Xiao, R., Wu, L., Gong, Z. et al. The relationship between the origin of tropical cyclones and their maximum attained intensity. npj Clim Atmos Sci (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01341-8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01341-8
