Abstract
Tropical cyclones (TCs) and their post-tropical (PTC) counterparts respond differently to surface warming, reflecting distinct thermodynamic and dynamical controls on storm structure and heavy precipitation. To quantify these responses, we developed a dynamically derived wind-based radius (r6) using ERA5 near-surface winds, capturing storm size, heavy precipitation metrics, and translation speed for North Atlantic tropical cyclones from 2001 to 2024. This metric provides a physically consistent framework to characterize storm evolution and track how heavy precipitation responds to warming. During the TC phase, precipitation intensity rises sharply with all temperatures, reaching a median of 21%/K for dewpoint, while the area of heavy precipitation expands by up to a median of 12.5%/K. Overall cyclone size generally contracts, with a median of 6.5%/K for air temperature, although this contraction weakens or reverses at very high sea-surface temperatures, particularly in the Caribbean, producing unusually large, long-lived storms. Slower motion in these warmer, low-latitude regions prolongs precipitation, boosting totals and concentrating heavy precipitation near the storm core. In contrast, PTCs expand but show limited thermodynamic sensitivity, producing broader, asymmetric precipitation fields under faster translation. These results show rapid ocean warming can intensify and prolong TC precipitation, amplifying regional risks in the North Atlantic.
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Data availability
This article uses the IBTrACS data that can be downloaded from [https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/international-best-track-archive] (https:/protect.checkpoint.com/v2/r01/___https:/www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/international-best-track-archive___.YzJ1OnN0b255YnJvb2s6YzpnOjdiNmYxZWUwMTc0ODIzN2ZlZjUyYmQ3ODJiNjQxNDU1Ojc6NzkzZjoxMmNkNzA2Zjk1YjAyMzNiODJhNzI0ZDljMjVkMmQzM2VkMWMxOTcyOGM0MjVjZDI4NDY0NzNlY2MzMDMyZDRjOnA6VDpG) and IMERG data that can be downloaded from [https://gpm.nasa.gov/data/imerg] (https:/protect.checkpoint.com/v2/r01/___https:/gpm.nasa.gov/data/imerg___.YzJ1OnN0b255YnJvb2s6YzpnOjdiNmYxZWUwMTc0ODIzN2ZlZjUyYmQ3ODJiNjQxNDU1Ojc6NjRlMDo3YzZlZGZlYzhlZjhlYmFlNDc5ZWVlOGI3NjgxMGI0MWVhYWE2ZWFmMGEwOGY0MjEwM2Y4MmY1NmM4YzRhNWM0OnA6VDpG). ERA5 meteorological data is freely available to download from the ECMWF (https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/datasets/reanalysis-era5-single-levels?tab=download) (https:/protect.checkpoint.com/v2/r01/___https:/cds.climate.copernicus.eu/datasets/reanalysis-era5-single-levels?tab=download___.YzJ1OnN0b255YnJvb2s6YzpnOjdiNmYxZWUwMTc0ODIzN2ZlZjUyYmQ3ODJiNjQxNDU1Ojc6NWNhYjozNjhhYWExYjI5NzQ2NWRkMTM2NzgzOGYzMjg2MTk5ZjQ3OGY5MjVhMjMyMTdhMGE5OWViYzM0OTk5ZWUyYzFiOnA6VDpG)). The datasets generated during this study are not publicly available, as they can be reproduced by applying the methodology to the open-access data described above, but are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Code availability
All analyses were conducted in Python. Custom scripts are direct implementations of the standard methods and techniques described in the Methods section and are available from the corresponding author upon request.
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Acknowledgements
All authors acknowledge the data from the IBTrACS, IMERG GPM and ERA5. These datasets are openly accessible and can be downloaded from the links mentioned in the Methods section. Haider Ali and Hayley J. Fowler were supported by the NERC-funded Huracan Project (NE/W009587/1). Hayley Fowler is funded by Royal Society as a Faraday Discovery Fellowship holder (Grant no Faraday Discovery Fellowship). Kevin Reed acknowledges the funding support of the National Science Foundation (NSF) under award number AGS-2244917 and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science Award Number DE-SC0016605, 'A Framework for Improving Analysis and Modeling of Earth System and Intersectoral Dynamics at Regional Scales.'
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H.A. and K.R. performed the analysis and prepared figures. A.P. processed the data. H.A., K.R., A.P. and H.F. wrote the main manuscript. H.F. obtained funding.
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Ali, H., Fowler, H.J., Reed, K. et al. Warmer temperatures lead to wetter tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic. npj Clim Atmos Sci (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01363-2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01363-2
