Fig. 3: Relative risk of importation of the epidemic.

For each country with non-zero incidence, the figure shows the relative importation risk (see Methods). Since we forecasted every 7th day, the risk of importation was estimated using forecasts closest to and before the date of the first case in that country reported in the data used. The date on which risk was estimated for each country is shown in the figure. Blue indicates low relative risk while deeper shades of red represent higher relative risk of acting as a source of importation. White is used to denote no risk. The estimates presented here use ProMED data with a 2 week calibration window. The country for which risk is estimated is shown in grey. The black circle represents the actual source of importation as retrospectively identified through epidemiological and genomic investigations. For each country, the figure shows only the risk of importation from other countries and does not show the risk of transmission within the country.