Fig. 4: Evaluation of EHR emulation with and without the integration of drug-target prediction.

a displays all analyses conducted using the BASELINE cohort across 11 prognostic outcome measures (NT-proBNP, BNP, TnT, TnI, Creatinine, BUN, eGFR, Hemoglobin, Renin, Aldosterone, CRP). Two subplots are included: (i) EHR-based emulation and (ii) EHR emulation with integrated drug-target prediction. Detailed predictions for each of the 17 RCT drugs are shown, along with the overall AUC-ROC and PR-AUC for all drugs. Additionally, b presents analyses based on BNP, the best-performing prognostic outcome measure, across 4 HF patient cohorts (BASELINE, ALL, HFpEF, HFrEF), with two subplots: (i) EHR-based emulation and (ii) EHR emulation with integrated drug-target prediction. Please note, for (i) EHR-based emulation, while the odds ratio derived from the logistic regression coefficient can be used to estimate both the magnitude and direction of treatment effects, we focus solely on estimating the direction to align with the objectives of this study. Similarly, (ii) For EHR emulation with integrated drug-target prediction, our model predicts the likelihood of a drug being beneficial compared to the standard of care.