Extended Data Fig. 6: Predicted areas with the difference between maximum allowable grazing pressure and current grazing pressure when aridity and grazing acted synergistically.

a-b: CMIP5 scenarios RCP4.5 (that is, assuming saturated increase in CO₂ emissions); a and b are for 2020–2060 and 2061–2100 relative to the baseline period (1980–2014), respectively. c-d: CMIP5 scenarios RCP8.5 (that is, assuming sustained increase in CO₂ emissions); c and d are for 2020–2060 and 2061–2100 relative to the baseline period (1980–2014), respectively. The grey shading denotes the baseline drylands in 1950–2000 that are unsuitable for grazing. The blue and brown shading denotes where the maximum allowable grazing pressure is higher and lower than the current grazing level, respectively. The red lines denote the baseline drylands in 1950–2000 that are not suitable for grazing and thus where grazing is not recommended, as their maximum allowable grazing pressure is equal to zero and the current grazing pressure leads thresholds to be crossed for ecosystem attributes. The grey shading denotes drylands where the land covers are cropland, wetland or urban areas. The unshaded areas are not drylands today and therefore are outside of the range. Credit: basemaps from the Global Aridity Index database⁴² and China Data Lab⁶².