Fig. 5: Distribution of the estimated dates of COVID-19 symptom onset among 40,486 confirmed cases used in this study, and of the actual dates of COVID-19 symptom onset among 75,465 confirmed cases reported by the World Health Organization. | Communications Biology

Fig. 5: Distribution of the estimated dates of COVID-19 symptom onset among 40,486 confirmed cases used in this study, and of the actual dates of COVID-19 symptom onset among 75,465 confirmed cases reported by the World Health Organization.

From: An extended Weight Kernel Density Estimation model forecasts COVID-19 onset risk and identifies spatiotemporal variations of lockdown effects in China

Fig. 5

The available data on 40,486 confirmed cases in China from 31 December 2019 to 2 March 2020 were collected from official reports by provincial and municipal health commissions and public media. These cases had the dates on which they were reported, together with the community-level locations at which they had a period of stay prior to diagnosis. Of these cases, 1189 had reported dates of symptom onset. The statistical method proposed by Shi et al.24 was used to estimate the onset dates of the cases for which the onset dates were unavailable. The 75,465 confirmed cases were reported by the WHO23 and did not include the fine-scale location needed in this study.

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