Fig. 6: Comparison of alternative models in the year each population met the quasi-extinction criterion.
From: Climate change threatens Chinook salmon throughout their life cycle
The year in which each population fell below the quasi-extinction threshold (QET50) for Model 1 (red), Model 2 (yellow), and Model 3 (blue). Model 1 covariates include sea surface temperature (SST), summer air temperature, and fall flow; Model 2 covariates include SST and summer flow; Model 3 covariates include SST, coastal upwelling, summer air temperature, and fall flow. Extinctions occurred earlier in scenarios with more warming (Q75) compared with less warming (Q25) in models that did not include upwelling (yellow and red) but later when more intense upwelling ameliorated SST effects (blue). However, in all models, extinctions occurred earlier in RCP 8.5 scenarios compared with a detrended climate. Note that larger populations (bottom row) often never dropped below QET50 in the detrended climate, indicated with ~. Boxes show the interquartile range across simulations, while whiskers extend to 1.5 times the interquartile range. Horizontal lines show the median values.
