Fig. 3: Sensitivity to sunk costs depends on the value remaining.
Value is defined as (threshold - offer). Each primary panel shows the increased probability of remaining to earn given the value of a current moment in the countdown. The x axis shows the value left in the countdown at the time of quit. The y axis shows the change in p(Earn) between the time invested and the baseline condition (0 s invested), with time invested marked in color. Insets show the raw probability of remaining to earn at a given value within a countdown. Probability is measured over all subjects. The vertical line marks the transition to where the value crosses zero, where the delay crosses the threshold. Thus, to the right of the line, the remaining time is below the threshold for that restaurant/gallery. Mice, rats, and humans were only sensitive to sunk costs until the value crossed that line. Statistics measured if the change in p(Earn) was greater before than after value crossed from negative to positive (Mann–Whitney sign rank test). a Mouse data from16,19, p < 10−100 b Mouse dataset from20, p < 10−100. c Rat dataset from19, p = 10−62. d Human dataset from19, p = 0.27. e Human dataset from23, p = 10−19. f Online human data from Schmitzer-Torbert laboratory, p = 10−94.
