Table 1 Bayesian estimates of the time to most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) across Y. pestis studies.

From: Plagued by a cryptic clock: insight and issues from the global phylogeny of Yersinia pestis

Category

Population

Morelli et al. 2010

Cui et al. 2013

Rasmussen et al. (2015)

Pisarenko et al. 2021

Spyrou et al. 2019

This Study

Informative Dates

1.ORI

−326, 1793

1735, 1863

1744, 1842

1806, 1901

No Temporal Signal

1.IN

−2388, 1606

1500, 1750*

1791, 1897

1651, 1913

Irreproducible Estimates

1.ANT

−4909, 1322

1377, 1650

1045, 1480

1483, 1704

1655, 1835

Informative Dates

1.PRE

1312, 1353

901,1343

1182, 1333

1214, 1315

Informative Dates

2.MED

−583, 1770

1550, 1800*

1413, 1653

1560, 1845

No Temporal Signal

2.ANT

−3994, 1460

1550, 1800*

1373, 1628

1509, 1852

No Temporal Signal

4.ANT

1200, 1700*

1611, 1816

1848, 1968

No Temporal Signal

3.ANT

1450, 1850*

1531, 1742

1769, 1947

Irreproducible Estimates

0.ANT

−6857, 1199

100, 1100*

1033, 1435

1357, 1797

Informative Dates

0.ANT4

−400,315

39,234

Irreproducible Estimates

0.PE

−26641, −598

−4394, 510

−377, 499

1573, 1876

Informative Dates

0.PRE

−5007, −3006

−3098, −2786

  1. Uncertainty surrounding the tMRCA is represented by the 95% highest posterior density (HPD) interval. A dash indicates the study did not incorporate genomes from the population. No Temporal Signal indicates a population had no detectable temporal signal according to a BETS test. The Irreproducible Dates category defines a population with node-dating conflicts attributed to sampling bias, despite having detectable temporal signal. Informative Dates reflects a population with detectable temporal signal and no node-dating conflicts.
  2. *Visually estimated from the published time-scaled phylogeny.