Fig. 4: Associations of establishment success of butterflies with species traits.

Figures are based on the GLMM and raw data illustrating the number of new provinces the species colonised as a function of (a) diet specialisation (where 1 = monophagous, 2 = oligophagous, and 3 = polyphagous), (b) body size (wingspan), (c) total range size, (d) habitat preference, and thermal niche quantified as (e) mean species temperature index, and (f) range of the species temperature index. Each dot represents one species and one period. The coloured box plots (in a and d) are based on raw data and boxes indicate the first and third quartiles, horizontal lines indicate the median, vertical lines indicate 1.5 × IQR, and coloured dots indicate outliers. Overlayed in black (a and d) are least-squares means with associated error bars from the GLMM reported in Table 1b. In panels b, c, e, and f, the black dots represent raw data (each dot representing one species and one time period), and the blue lines and shaded areas show the predicted mean lines with 95% CI obtained from the GLMM (n = 467) reported in Table 1b. °0.05 < P < 0.1, ***P < 0.001, see Table 1b and Table S2 for details.