Fig. 3: The 2003 SARS epidemic in Hong Kong20,21.
From: Intrinsic randomness in epidemic modelling beyond statistical uncertainty
a ρ(t) with 95% epistemic uncertainty. b Fitted incidence mean, 95% epistemic uncertainty with observational noise from using Eq. (4). Data is daily incidence of symptom onset. c Aleatoric uncertainty from the start of the epidemic under an optimistic and pessimistic ρ(t). d Epistemic (blue) and epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty (red) while keeping ρ constant at the forecast data (dotted line). Forecasting is from day 60.
