Fig. 7: Anomalous fade-outs in real data.
From: Endemic infectious states below the epidemic threshold and beyond herd immunity
In the two panels we show with dots the evolution of the prevalence in one particular LTLA corresponding to the region of Haringey, in London. Observing the data, we differentiate three dynamical regions regarding the behavior of the prevalence corresponding to the first wave (exponential decay), the anomalous fade-out (fluctuating plateau), and the second wave (exponential growth). In (a) and (b), we also show results from simulations carried with the mobility switched off as described in the case of independent sub-populations, using the demographic details of the LTLA and we fix \({{{{{{{{\mathcal{R}}}}}}}}}_{0}=0.8\). The solid line represents the median and the shadowed area of the first and third quartiles obtained from 103 simulations. In (a), we show the evolution obtained with simulations without external seeding (h = 0). With this setting, the model reproduces properly the exponential decay but fails in describing the subsequent plateau. In (b), simulations are run with h = 0.2. In this case, the model captures both the decay and the plateau regimes.
