Fig. 1: Extrinsic detection case threshold performance under noisy surveillance.
From: Asymmetric limits on timely interventions from noisy epidemic data
We plot the lag in crossing alert threshold \(a\) for 1000 epidemics simulated with COVID-19 parameters under a renewal process (see Methods). a Upward crossing lag times \({\varDelta }_{{\rm{grow}}}={t}_{C\ge a}-{t}_{I\ge a}\) during the growth stage of the simulated epidemics. b Downward crossing lags \({\varDelta }_{{\rm{wane}}}={t}_{I\le a}-{t}_{C\le a}\) for waning epidemics. We plot lags for cases corrupted by only under-reporting (red), delays (green) and then for both noise sources combined (blue).
