Fig. 1: Battery phosphorus flows in the LFP battery scenario.
a Primary demand. Gray dashed horizontal line represents estimated current global phosphorus production for industrial use in 2020, which is based on phosphate rock production amount in 20204 (assuming medium-grade ore of 20% P2O55) of which 9% for industrial use6. b Outflow in end-of-life batteries. c Cumulative demand in 2020–2050 without recycling. Gray error bars represent a sensitivity analysis for battery capacity considering two extreme cases, i.e., if all EVs were plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs) with small 10 kWh batteries or if all EVs were large battery EVs (BEVs) with 110 kWh batteries, e.g., Tesla’s Model S Long Range Plus7. d Impact of closed-loop recycling rate on cumulative demand reduction in 2020–2050. Note that pyrometallurgical and hydrometallurgical recycling methods for LFP may not be economical to recover phosphorus at industrial scale. Direct recycling, i.e., recovering LFP cathode directly, could be economical, but is still at early-stage development8. Here we assume 90% recycling rate of LFP cathode by direct recycling to explore the potential impact of closed-loop recycling on primary phosphorus demand. STEP scenario the Stated Policies scenario, SD scenario Sustainable Development scenario, Mt million tons.
