Fig. 2: Forecasting the Atmospheric River in storm Dennis. | Communications Earth & Environment

Fig. 2: Forecasting the Atmospheric River in storm Dennis.

From: Improved forecasts of atmospheric rivers through systematic reconnaissance, better modelling, and insights on conversion of rain to flooding

Fig. 2

a Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble forecast for integrated vapour transport IVT (shaded contours and red dashed line) and total precipitation (blue contour; areas inside the contour denote EFI for precipitation > 0.5). b Atmospheric River (AR) Scale in the ECMWF control forecast. The forecasts were initialised at 00UTC 8 February 2020 and are valid for the period 00UTC 14 February 2020 to 00UTC 17 February 2020 (forecast days 7–9). The nine black crosses in each panel in western Britain indicate rain gauges in the synoptic network where the corresponding 3-day total exceeded 50 mm.

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