Fig. 2: Distribution of the remaining carbon budget for 1.5 °C for emissions from the beginning of the year 2020 onwards, and the effect of related geophysical uncertainties.
From: An integrated approach to quantifying uncertainties in the remaining carbon budget
a Distribution of the remaining carbon budget for 1.5 °C for the “Main case”, with a median estimate of 440 GtCO2 and a 33rd percentile of 230 GtCO2 (representing a 50% and 67% chance of remaining below 1.5 °C, respectively); b Sensitivity of the 1.5 °C remaining budget and its range to increased or decreased uncertainty in the input distributions of individual parameters (coloured bars as labelled on vertical axis) and comparison to the SR1.5 estimates (grey bars, where the upper grey bar represents the total range spanned by additional uncertainties that were not included in the median and 33rd–67th TCRE percentile range shown in the lower grey bar). SR1.5 numbers illustrated here are adjusted downwards (based on ref. 23), to represent remaining budgets from the beginning of the year 2020, rather than 2018 as originally reported. Equivalent figures for 1.75 and 2 °C budgets are shown in Supplementary Fig. S4. The box plots indicate the median value, the 33–67% range, and the 5–95% range, as labelled.
