Fig. 6: Emergence of changes outside of historical experience in observed fire potential indicators. | Communications Earth & Environment

Fig. 6: Emergence of changes outside of historical experience in observed fire potential indicators.

From: Connections of climate change and variability to large and extreme forest fires in southeast Australia

Fig. 6: Emergence of changes outside of historical experience in observed fire potential indicators.

a Time series of mean monthly (light brown) and annual (mid brown) FFDI in southeast Australia, and the long-term signal as a 30-year lowess filter of annual means (dark brown). Variability of annual FFDI values in the 1950–1999 historical reference interval (dashed lines) is used to define the ±1σ (dark purple shading) and ±2σ (light purple shading) noise level around the historical mean (Methods). b Spatial plot of the level of the mean FFDI in 2019, expressed as standard deviation level above the historical reference. Values not exceeding the +2σ level of historical variability are masked out. c, d, as in a, b, but for the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI). e, f, as in a, b, but for VPD and with a 30-year historical reference period from 1970–1999. See also Supplementary Fig. 4 for the seasonal analysis of FFDI emergence.

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