Fig. 4: The Probability Ratio (PR) for SREX regions (land only) and the global mean (land and ocean) for monthly extreme events exceeding the 98th percentile in a 2C-warming scenario (as specified in the Paris agreement) relative to the present-day climate.

For a high-temperature events, b heavy-precipitation events. Red bars show the total PR, blue bars the PR due to the changes in mean climate and yellow bars the PR related to changes in climate variability. Values of the vertical axis are shown in the global subplot.