Fig. 9: Time series of the Probability Ratio (PR) for two SREX regions highlighted with a red box in Figs. 7 and 8 (ALA, MED), for monthly extreme events exceeding the 98th percentile under the RCP8.5 emission scenario relative to 1950-1979. | Communications Earth & Environment

Fig. 9: Time series of the Probability Ratio (PR) for two SREX regions highlighted with a red box in Figs. 7 and 8 (ALA, MED), for monthly extreme events exceeding the 98th percentile under the RCP8.5 emission scenario relative to 1950-1979.

From: Contribution of climatic changes in mean and variability to monthly temperature and precipitation extremes

Fig. 9

For each of the six models we show the a, c high-temperature events, b, d heavy-precipitation events, and a, b SREX region Alaska, c, d SREX region Mediterranean. Red lines show the total PR, blue lines the PR due to the changes in mean climate and yellow lines the PR related to changes in climate variability, with the 90% confidence interval shown in coloured shading. The EC-Earth model (used for Figs. 2 to 6) is highlighted with additional dots. Bars at the right of the plots show the end-of-century (EOC, 2070-2099) multimodel mean PR-values, with black vertical lines indicating the inter-model range, plotted thicker if there is intermodel disagreement in the sign of change.

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