Fig. 3: Dynamical predictions of temperature.
From: Skilful prediction of cod stocks in the North and Barents Sea a decade in advance
Anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) as a function of lead year for initialized hindcasts (red), lagged-persistence (blue), and historical simulation (magenta dot) for annual mean (a) North Sea surface temperature and (c) subpolar gyre surface temperature with respect to the assimilation experiment for the period 1971–2019. Time series of (b) North Sea surface temperature and (d) subpolar gyre surface temperature anomalies (with respect to 1970–2019 mean) from the assimilation experiment (circles), initialized hindcast (dark colored line), forecast and historical+RCP8.5 simulation (light colored line). The solid lines in (b and d) are the respective ensemble mean predictions (or simulations) and the shading is the entire range of the respective 16-member ensemble. The regions for computing area averaged surface temperatures of the North Sea and subpolar gyre are shown in Fig. 1a. The lagged-persistence (LP)-based skill is provided for 1-, 4-, 7- and 10-year lags. The shading and whiskers in (a and c) depict 95% confidence intervals.
