Fig. 4: Projected regional changes and the role of large-scale atmospheric circulation variability. | Communications Earth & Environment

Fig. 4: Projected regional changes and the role of large-scale atmospheric circulation variability.

From: Projections of northern hemisphere extratropical climate underestimate internal variability and associated uncertainty

Fig. 4

Distributions of projected regional changes for the 2041–2060 mean from a 1995–2014 baseline period for: a Winter surface-air temperature, b winter precipitation, c summer surface-air temperature and d summer precipitation. The thin horizontal lines show the 5–95% range, the rectangular boxes show the interquartile range (i.e. 25–75%) and the vertical lines show the median change. Distributions are shown for the MPI-GE-raw ensemble (in blue) and the MPI-GE-obs ensemble (in red). The black boxes show where the interquartile range of the 2041–2060 projection in the MPI-GE-obs ensemble is significantly different from the respective interquartile range in the MPI-GE-raw ensemble (at the 95% level, based on a Monte Carlo resampling, see ‘Methods’ for further details).

Back to article page