Fig. 5: Relationship between sea-ice reduction and AAI in the CMIP6 multimodel ensemble.
From: Enhanced Arctic warming amplification revealed in a low-emission scenario
a–e Scatter plots of the OND-mean AAI (K K−1) against the JAS-mean SIA change scaled with the global-mean SAT change (106 km2 K−1) for (a) 1990–2014, (b, d) 2020–2039, and (c, e) 2080–2099. Results from (b, c) SSP1-2.6 and (c, e) SSP5-8.5 simulations are shown separately. The black closed circle, square and triangle in (a) denote observations41,42,43,44, in which the JAS-mean SIA changes are derived from COBE-SST242, NASA Bootstrap44, and NASA Team43, respectively. The X symbol in (a–e) denotes MIROC6 run 1. Orange and purple circles show CMIP6 models, grouped with respect to the value of AAI for 1990–2014. The two box-and-whisker plots in (a) indicate the range of the MIROC6 large ensemble for AAI and ∆SIA/∆SAT, respectively. Ensemble means and spreads for each group of CMIP6 models are indicated by a plus sign in (b–e). The correlation coefficient between the AAI and the sea-ice change using all CMIP6 models is shown in each panel.
